Where We Need to Be

When we mention 'sustainability,' we are describing a destination where society fosters prosperity for all without compromising the environment.

To realize this vision, we must consider what constitutes a safe and equitable space for humanity. The concept of the Doughnut, introduced by economist Kate Raworth, represents such a space. The inner ring of the Doughnut encompasses twelve essential foundations necessary for every individual to lead a fulfilling life. If any of these foundations fall short, it indicates that segments of society lack crucial elements for a satisfying existence.

The outer ring represents nine planetary boundaries critical for preserving the stability and resilience of our Earth system. The safe operating space is the area we must remain within to sustain the conditions vital for our survival. Exceeding these ecological limits can endanger essential processes, risking irreversible and catastrophic changes.

Ensuring a safe environment for humanity necessitates avoiding breaches of the ecological ceiling. By integrating the inner social foundations with the outer ecological ceiling, we can envision sustainability—a just space for humanity that meets everyone's social needs. This vision can guide our decision-making and serve as a compass toward our goals.

With a clear destination established, the next phase of backcasting involves evaluating our current reality to measure how far we are from achieving this safe and just space.

Where We Are Environmentally

The depiction of the nine planetary boundaries illustrates the 'safe operating space' at its center—where each biophysical process must remain stable. The boundary signifies a transition from safety to increasing risk. Our unsustainable behaviors, driven by the production and consumption of goods and services, are pushing these processes into a riskier zone.

Continuing along this unsustainable path only exacerbates the distance from the safe operating space, increasing the likelihood of tipping points—critical thresholds that, once crossed, result in abrupt changes. We cannot predict how much stress a system can endure before reaching this critical point, nor can we foresee the consequences of triggering such points.

What we do know is that sustaining a global economy of this magnitude requires significant energy and resource inputs, leading to substantial impacts on the nine vital processes. Currently, six of these processes—climate change, land-system change, biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, novel entities, and freshwater change—have breached their boundaries and entered risky territory.

While this framework effectively illustrates the consequences of our actions, it also highlights what must be done to return these processes to a safe operating space. For instance, addressing the climate change boundary requires reducing atmospheric CO2 levels from 422 parts per million (ppm) to below 350 ppm to ensure safety.

Where We Are Socially

The situation regarding social sustainability is equally dire. As Raworth notes in Doughnut Economics:

> “Worldwide, one person in nine does not have enough to eat. One in four lives on less than $3 a day and one in eight young people cannot find work. One person in three still has no access to a toilet…one child in six aged 12–15 is not in school, the vast majority of them girls. Almost 40 percent of people live in countries in which income is distributed highly unequally. And more than half of the world’s population live in countries in which people severely lack political voice.”

These statistics reveal that all twelve social foundations are experiencing shortfalls. In the accompanying image, each foundation displays a wedge extending outward—indicating the severity of these shortfalls.

Establishing a safe and equitable space for humanity requires addressing these shortfalls, ensuring that every individual has their social foundations met. Simultaneously, we must strive to bring the six planetary boundaries back into their safe operating zones while maintaining stability across the others.

This task is already monumental, but the anticipated increase in the global population—projected to reach nearly ten billion by 2050 and over 11 billion by 2100—compounds the challenge, marking it as one of humanity's most significant hurdles.

A Profound Dilemma

The core issue we face is that current social development, as we understand it, leads to the depletion of social foundations while simultaneously exacerbating overshoot. Growth projections for the global middle class illustrate this conflict.

It is indeed commendable that the global middle class, defined as those spending between $10 and $100 daily, is expected to grow from two billion individuals today to over five billion by 2030. Increased income may help alleviate some social shortfalls, but it also allows for greater consumption.

As the middle class expands, desires for travel, electronics, and meat consumption will rise, and rightly so. However, with increased consumption comes heightened energy demands and resource utilization.

In Prosperity without Growth, Tim Jackson illustrates how challenging our current developmental trajectory is. He envisions a scenario where social equity is prioritized, and global incomes align by 2050.

For this to occur, if wealthier nations experience 2% annual growth, middle-income countries would need to grow by approximately 7.6% each year, while low-income nations would require nearly 12% growth. In this hypothetical scenario, the global economy would expand to eleven times its size in 2016 by 2050. If growth continues at this rate, the economy could reach thirty times its current size by the century's end.

Given that we already exist in a state of overshoot—evidenced by six planetary boundaries being compromised—consider the implications of a thirty-fold increase in economic output.

A thirty-fold increase is clearly unattainable, as it would necessitate overwhelming increases in resource and energy inputs, further worsening overshoot. Ecological processes would move even further from safe operating conditions, amplifying the risk of triggering tipping points that could irreversibly alter our environment.

Such transformations could impose severe strains on our capacity to maintain social foundations for those who currently have access, let alone address the needs of those who do not.

If the prospect of this hypothetical future appears unrealistic, remember that global economic growth is projected to reach three percent annually until 2050.

Sustainable Development

We now possess a vision for sustainability and an understanding of our current state. The subsequent step is to devise a strategy that transitions us from our present circumstances to our desired future.

The pivotal question is:

> How can we reduce social shortfalls while simultaneously decreasing overshoot to ensure that each biophysical process returns to its safe operating space?

This question presents a significant challenge on the path toward sustainability.

Social development introduces a profound dilemma, as the correlation between living standards and environmental impacts reveals that our current understanding of development perpetuates overshoot. This is why the climate crisis sparks such heated debate.

The climate is undeniably changing, but the driving force behind this change is the rising living standards associated with increased consumption. Consequently, to mitigate overshoot and bring the nine processes within ecological limits, we must scrutinize living standards.

Those enjoying high living standards are unlikely to question this connection, as they have much to lose if the implications become widely recognized.

The moral quandary becomes evident: as more individuals achieve higher living standards, the environmental crisis worsens.

To navigate the inherent tensions in society and reach our goals, we require revolutionary change. A complete redesign of our social structures, economic systems, and perceptions of success is essential. This represents nothing less than the most significant transformation humanity has ever undertaken.

While many may resist this transformation, as they benefit from the existing system, the reality of overshoot indicates that our future hangs in the balance. Catastrophic environmental shifts loom on the horizon, leading to waves of social crises. Ironically, these crises may create the conditions necessary for the transformations we urgently need.

Amidst despair, hope lies in our technological capabilities to achieve sustainability. An army of dedicated environmentalists is eager to support this transformation. Although the journey to sustainability will be fraught with challenges, reaching this destination may ultimately prove worthwhile.

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