Understanding the Complexities of UAPs and Their Implications
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Update: Donald Rumsfeld passed away on June 29, 2021, in Taos, New Mexico. His perspective on knowns and unknowns continues to resonate.
Knowing What Is and Isn’t Known
On February 12, 2002, shortly after the events of 9/11, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld addressed a Department of Defense briefing, where he was questioned about the absence of evidence connecting Iraq's regime to weapons of mass destruction and terrorist affiliations.
His response remains notable and warrants reflection:
> “Reports that state something hasn’t occurred intrigue me because, as we understand, there are known knowns; things we know we know. There are known unknowns; which means we recognize there are things we do not know. And there are also unknown unknowns — those we do not know we don’t know. Historically, it is often the last category that presents the greatest challenges.”
Rumsfeld's breakdown of these categories—known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns—has been referenced for comedic effect and as evidence of his disconnect from public perception.
This analytical framework isn't unique to him; it echoes a concept within intelligence circles known as the Johari window, introduced by two American psychologists in 1955. NASA later adapted this concept, which Rumsfeld encountered in the late 1990s through NASA administrator William Graham.
The idea of categorizing what we know and don’t know remains relevant in project management discussions. Now, let's apply this framework to the current discourse on UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) and what they may signify.
Examining the Categories
Known Knowns
Since late 2017, we have confirmation from various national media outlets, government officials, and the Department of Defense acknowledging that UAPs are indeed real. We have three compelling videos released by the U.S. Navy, ongoing investigations by the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the Office of Naval Intelligence leading a dedicated Task Force. The dialogue has begun.
We understand that the extraordinary craft, which outmaneuver our advanced aircraft, are not products of our own technology, nor are they likely developed by nations like Russia or China.
Known Unknowns
Despite emerging evidence, the global consensus has yet to accept that these UAPs represent either advanced technology or non-human intelligence. We lack clarity on their nature and whether they constitute a singular phenomenon.
While it is evident that the government possesses more information than the public, the extent of their knowledge and its utilization over the past seventy years remains unclear.
We cannot definitively confirm the existence of crash debris, although the New York Times has hinted at its presence. The Roswell incident is supported by substantial testimony from military personnel, suggesting we have had crash wreckage since 1947. The reasons for its prolonged secrecy remain a mystery.
Moreover, private enterprises appear to be delving into areas suggesting a connection to UAPs, yet we remain uninformed about their insights, activities, or interpretations.
Unknown Unknowns
As Rumsfeld articulated, this category tends to be the most challenging to grasp.
By nature, it is straightforward to evaluate. If we are unaware of something, we cannot even begin to discuss it.
However, there is a growing acknowledgment of unusual occurrences than ever before, while officials maintain a stance of ignorance regarding the authenticity of UFO reports. Yet, it is likely that some do possess substantial knowledge.
Are they withholding information for geopolitical advantages? Have “Others” instructed silence? Who are these beings? What are their intentions? Are we secure?
Are there few “Others” or many? Do they have a plan for humanity?
What is their interest in our nuclear capabilities? Have they been involved in human abductions? Are they altering our DNA? Do they seek dominion over Earth, or are they here to assist? If so, why the lack of action?
Consider crop circles, animal mutilations, or the possible existence of Majestic-12. Are we living in a grand simulation? Are they extraterrestrial, interdimensional, or future iterations of ourselves?
Indeed, Rumsfeld was correct; these inquiries will undoubtedly be the most arduous to resolve.
Rumsfeld's Known Unknown
Rumsfeld served as Secretary of Defense during the Ford Administration, stepping into the role in 1974, shortly after Project Blue Book was concluded by the U.S. Air Force.
- Allen Hynek, a key figure from Project Blue Book, approached Rumsfeld that same year, believing them to be allies with shared interests. This account comes from Roswell researcher Don Schmitt, who served as Hynek’s chief investigator.
Hynek was frustrated after two decades of service without receiving satisfactory answers from the Pentagon. He felt he had upheld the Air Force’s image and deserved transparency. Hynek suspected that someone was controlling access to the truth regarding UFOs.
> “Why do the significant cases always go to the higher-ups? Why am I left in the dark?” he demanded.
Hynek argued that, as an investigator, he had proven his competence and should be privy to government knowledge, including what Rumsfeld knew.
The Secretary of Defense, known for his formidable demeanor, confronted Hynek directly.
Rumsfeld was incensed. “Do not ever come into my office and inquire about this again,” he retorted. He asserted that Hynek, despite his position, “had no right to know.” Thus, he dismissed the former chief investigator from Project Blue Book.
The known unknown in this scenario is, of course, what Rumsfeld knew that he felt Hynek should remain ignorant of, particularly given Hynek’s role demanded he uncover answers.
Perhaps, throughout his years in high-security roles, Rumsfeld had encountered some unknown unknowns that had transitioned into known unknowns for him, leading him to be reluctant to broaden the circle of knowledge.
Unknown unknowns will not remain elusive indefinitely. They will eventually become known unknowns. What the world will resemble once they transform into known knowns is, frankly, anyone’s speculation.
> Trail of the Saucers, created by Bryce Zabel and co-edited with David Bates, focuses on UFO/UAP news, culture, history, and analysis. Here are several of our related articles —