Chapter 1: Understanding Affective Forecasting

Can we truly predict how future events will impact our feelings?

Being attuned to our emotions involves more than simply feeling and expressing them in the present moment. The concept of Affective Forecasting in psychology highlights that our emotions are significantly shaped by our expectations regarding future experiences.

When we envision plans or activities, our brains conduct a rapid simulation of what those experiences might entail. This mental exercise incorporates episodic memories but is predominantly affective.

Imagine your friend invites you to watch a movie.

Your mind quickly conjures up what that experience will be like, drawing from every past visit to the cinema. You envision the large screen, the dim lighting, the booming sound system, the expensive popcorn, and the idea of sitting in one spot for hours.

However, it doesn't stop there; your mind also simulates the "FEELING" associated with it. If past movie outings were enjoyable, you might feel positive emotions. Conversely, if you find the theater overpriced and overrated, your interest may wane.

While it might seem that we make decisions based on logical "pros and cons," the truth is that our choices are often driven by these anticipatory feelings.

Now, consider the same movie scenario, but this time, you're aware that someone you have a crush on will also be attending! Your mind simulates the experience of sitting next to your love interest in a dimly lit room, and suddenly, even if movie theaters aren't your favorite, you're filled with excitement to go. Who cares if popcorn costs a fortune? It's worth it!

Rationality and logic emerge only after our feelings have taken the lead. If we predict that attending will be pleasurable, we justify it with thoughts like, "I've heard good things about that film." On the flip side, if we anticipate a negative experience, we may rationalize it by saying, "I think I have other plans."

Either way, our anticipations shape our reality.

What's particularly interesting—and somewhat unsettling—is that our anticipatory feelings often act as self-fulfilling prophecies. When we expect an experience to be enjoyable, the likelihood of us actually enjoying it increases. Conversely, anticipating discomfort can significantly heighten the chances of an unpleasant experience.

Our minds actively seek evidence to support our predictions. If we foresee a situation going awry, we become attuned to signs of failure. However, if we anticipate success, our focus shifts to positive indicators.

Our expectations not only shape our perceptions but also prime our bodies physically.

You may have encountered this phenomenon before! As a deadline approaches, or if you have a dreaded appointment on the horizon, your body can react in anticipation. Even if the event is days away, you may start to feel anxiety, irritability, or physical tension in the present.

This is your body preparing for what it believes will be an unpleasant experience. The same goes for positive anticipation; looking forward to something can energize you, making mundane Mondays much easier to handle when weekend plans are on the horizon.

The brain is so intricate that we can even have anticipated feelings about our feelings.

Consider the experience of unrequited love or heartbreak. The initial excitement of love can quickly turn to sorrow when that connection is lost. While it's often said that "it's better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all," heartbreak can impart a painful lesson: the deeper the love, the greater the potential for pain.

Many of us have likely navigated one or two messy breakups, leading us to associate caring for someone with vulnerability and the risk of hurt.

Our minds may caution us against enjoying new relationships, fearing potential heartbreak: "Remember that time you cared for someone and got hurt? Brace yourself for impact if you care again!"

This can lead to anxious or avoidant relationship styles, where increased caring leads to heightened worry about potential disappointment.

We yearn for experiences to invigorate us, to anticipate joy and excitement. Yet, sometimes, our anticipation of pleasure can lead to a preemptive bracing for pain, dampening our excitement.

People often learn that "getting their hopes up" can lead to disappointment when their desires don't materialize. This anticipation of disappointment can overshadow positive feelings and cause us to shy away from hopeful expectations.

Conversely, many prepare for future events by envisioning the worst-case scenarios. This mindset, rooted in the belief that bad outcomes are possible, leads to a defensive approach: if you expect the worst, you can only be pleasantly surprised when things go well.

However, this approach often results in unnecessary suffering and an instinct to brace for impact in the present. This tendency may contribute to depression, characterized by an inability to anticipate pleasure, or anxiety, marked by generalized worry about future possibilities.

Chapter 2: Enhancing Predictive Abilities

Affective forecasting is largely influenced by our past experiences. When envisioning future events, we rely on previous encounters to generate feelings about what lies ahead.

To enhance our ability to predict future emotions, we must actively seek new experiences.

Engaging in novel situations can help us reshape previous memories or, at the very least, provide a clearer understanding of what future experiences might entail.

To the best of our ability, we can strive to suspend our expectations altogether.

Rather than overcorrect by dampening positive anticipation or conjuring up worst-case scenarios, we can cultivate a mindful approach, treating each experience as if it were our first. When we encounter new situations, we should remain curious about the experience as it unfolds.

"What is this like?" — A question to regularly ask ourselves.

Although letting go of expectations is challenging, fostering an open-minded attitude can empower us to try things we might otherwise avoid or revisit activities we previously dismissed.

Often, things appear more daunting and intense in our minds than they do in reality. Taking intentional steps towards apprehensive situations can help disarm our overactive defense mechanisms, revealing that what we feared was actually manageable.

This principle applies even to clinical issues such as depression, anxiety, and trauma. Evidence suggests that exposure therapy can effectively treat these symptoms by replacing negative memories with new, positive experiences.

In conclusion,

Our brains are continuously engaged in predicting the future by drawing on our beliefs, assumptions, expectations, and past experiences to generate feelings about what lies ahead. Regardless of what we imagine, our brains evoke feelings that either prepare us for action (e.g., excitement, motivation) or brace us for impact (e.g., stress, worry, tension).

As our expectations about the future significantly influence our present, it's essential to cultivate the ability to predict future experiences as accurately as possible. We achieve this through regular engagement in new experiences, approaching them with curiosity and an open mind, and suspending our expectations. This process refines our inner intuition and enhances our capacity to navigate life's ups and downs with greater resilience.

The first video, "Affective Forecasting: The Drug of Choice," delves into how our predictions about emotions influence our choices and well-being.

The second video, "Neuroscientist Reveals Your Brain is Just 'Guessing' & Doesn't Know Anything," features insights from Lisa Feldman Barrett on how our brains interpret and predict emotions based on past experiences.